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Lesson 5

Applying the Principles - Introduction to the Capstone

Introduction

Welcome to Lesson 5! This is the capstone assignment where you investigate a real-world problem using the techniques and tools introduced during your past coursework. In Lesson 1, we identified five principles of Geospatial Intelligence. These principles are:

  • Principle #1: Geospatial Intelligence concerns insights about human activity on the Earth.
  • Principle #2: The analyst's craft completes the picture provided by geospatial intelligence data.
  • Principle #3: Geospatial Intelligence collection and source strategies are focused on answering a question about place and time.
  • Principle #4: The Geospatial Intelligence analysis tradecraft is the art of geospatial reasoning informed by Geographic Information Science aided by Geographic Information Technology.
  • Principle #5: The Geospatial Intelligence analyst makes judgments consistent with the standards of the intelligence profession.

In Lesson 5, you will apply the principles. As we discussed in the previous lessons, GEOINT is the art and science of place and time on Earth's surface. Its subject matter is the human phenomena that make up the world's places. The GEOINT professional studies and describes the changing pattern of places in words, maps, and graphics, explaining how patterns come to be, unraveling their meaning, and anticipating changes in patterns for decision makers. In the capstone work you will experience how a GEOINT professional thinks about real-world-like problems.

Now is the time to apply what you have learned!

LEARNING OBJECTIVES

Throughout this lesson, we will demonstrate the concepts of Geospatial Intelligence. By the end of this lesson, you will be able to:

  • Apply geospatial intelligence data, tools, and techniques
  • Appraise a geospatial intelligence analysis

L5.02: Video Lecture 5.1

Please view my final video of the course (2 minutes).

L5.03: Background on the Problem

View the National Geographic video about a Doctors Without Borders Ebola clinic [1] in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia. Read: "Liberia: Ebola clinic fills up within hours of opening" [2] about Monrovia's desperate shortage of available beds for those struck by the vicious Ebola virus. Sick and dying people have been sent to holding areas because the Ebola Treatment Unit beds in the city are full.

Ebola Virus Disease (EVD)

The following summary of the Ebola disease is from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [3] and World Health Organization [4].

The Ebola virus causes an acute, serious illness which is often fatal if untreated. Ebola virus disease (EVD) first appeared in 1976 in 2 simultaneous outbreaks, one in Nzara, Sudan, and the other in Yambuku, Democratic Republic of Congo. The latter occurred in a village near the Ebola River, from which the disease takes its name.

The number of recent EVD cases is growing faster than the abilities of West Africa health officials to handle them. In the three hardest hit countries, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the number of new cases is growing faster than the capacity to manage them in the Ebola-specific treatment centers. Ebola treatment centers are being established to provide comprehensive care to people diagnosed with EVD.

The current outbreak in West Africa is the largest and most complex Ebola outbreak since the Ebola virus was first discovered in 1976. There have been more cases and deaths in this outbreak than all others combined. It has also spread between countries, starting in Guinea and then spreading across land borders to Sierra Leone and Liberia, by air (1 traveler only) to Nigeria, and by land (1 traveler) to Senegal.

The most severely affected countries, Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, have very weak health systems, lacking human and infrastructural resources, having only recently emerged from long periods of conflict and instability. On August 8, the WHO Director-General declared this outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern.

Transmission

It is thought that fruit bats are natural Ebola virus hosts. Ebola is introduced into the human population through close contact with the blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected animals such as chimpanzees, gorillas, fruit bats, monkeys, forest antelope, and porcupines found ill or dead or in the rainforest.

Ebola then spreads through human-to-human transmission via direct contact (through broken skin or mucous membranes) with the blood, secretions, organs or other bodily fluids of infected people, and with surfaces and materials (e.g. bedding, clothing) contaminated with these fluids. Health-care workers have frequently been infected while treating patients. This has occurred through close contact with patients when infection control precautions are not strictly practiced. Burial ceremonies in which mourners have direct contact with the body of the deceased person can also play a role in the transmission of Ebola.

Control relies on effective case management, surveillance and contact tracing, a good laboratory service, safe burials and social mobilization. Community engagement is key to successfully controlling outbreaks. Raising awareness of risk factors for Ebola infection and protective measures that individuals can take is an effective way to reduce human transmission. Risk reduction messaging focuses on several factors:

  • Reducing the risk of wildlife-to-human transmission from contact with infected fruit bats or monkeys/apes and the consumption of their raw meat. Animals should be handled with gloves and other appropriate protective clothing. Animal products (blood and meat) should be thoroughly cooked before consumption.
  • Reducing the risk of human-to-human transmission from direct or close contact with people with Ebola symptoms, particularly with their bodily fluids. Gloves and appropriate personal protective equipment should be worn when taking care of ill patients at home. Regular hand washing is required after visiting patients in hospital, as well as after taking care of patients at home.
  • Outbreak containment measures including prompt and safe burial of the dead, identifying people who may have been in contact with someone infected with Ebola, monitoring the health of contacts for 21 days, the importance of separating the healthy from the sick to prevent further spread, and the importance of good hygiene and maintaining a clean environment.

Ebola Story Map—Explore Ebola Outbreaks 1976-2014 [5]

Story maps combine interactive maps and multimedia content into elegant and informative user experiences. They make it easier to harness the power of maps to tell a story. Story maps are designed for general, non-technical audiences. However, story maps can also serve highly specialized audiences. They can summarize issues for managers and decision makers. They can help departments or teams within organizations to communicate with their colleagues.

 

L5.04: Assignment: Locating an Ebola Treatment Center

General

For your capstone and final assignment, you will select a location for a notional Ebola Treatment Unit in Monrovia, Liberia. Please note that our problem is hypothetical and bears no direct relationship to the location of planned clinics! The exercise uses data and a capability similar to the NGA Ebola Map site designed to assist Ebola relief in West Africa. Similarly, our parallel site is supported with Esri's ArcGIS Online, DigitalGlobe's Human Geography data, and hosted on Amazon Web Services. Your peer reviewed work:

  • Concerns insights about human activity on the Earth.
  • Applies the analyst's craft to develop a picture of the place.
  • Applies a simple data collection strategy.
  • Uses the art of geospatial reasoning informed by Geographic Information Technology within the structure of the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) technique.
  • Will be assessed for consistency with the standards of the intelligence profession.

You might want to review the explanation of the ACH approach found in Structured Analysis of Competing Hypotheses: Improving a Tested Intelligence Methodology [6] by Kristan J. Wheaton and Diane E. McManis. We are just using evidence and hypotheses that are geospatial in nature.

IMPORTANT - Submission Dates

This assignment makes use of Coursera's Peer Assessment tool. Use the following link to access the Peer Assessment tool [7]. The key deliverables and due dates for this assignment are:

Submission Dates
Date Time Activity Your Task
9 February, 2015 Lesson 5 opens 0001 UTC/GMT (12:01 AM) Assignment Starts
  • Begin a forum discussion of locating an Ebola Treatment Center.
  • After this time, you can see the assignment and start working on it. You can save drafts of your work as you go along, and you can come back later to continue working on your draft. When you're ready to submit your work for evaluation, remember to click the "Submit" button. If the deadline passes and you haven't clicked "Submit" yet, then your saved draft will not be evaluated. Note: You can submit and re-submit your work for evaluation as many times as you want before the submission deadline, without any penalty. Only your last submission will be seen and evaluated by your classmates.Post this to the Lesson 5 Discussion Forum.
14 February, 2015 Due at 2359 UTC/GMT (11:59 PM) Submission Deadline After this time, you can no longer change your submission. If you have not clicked the "Submit" button by this time, your classmates will not see your submission, you will not receive an evaluation for this assignment, and you will not be permitted to evaluate your classmates' submissions.
15 February, 2015 Begin on 15 February at 0001 UTC/GMT (12:01 AM) Evaluation Starts After this time, you will evaluate the work of five (5) of your peers. Finally, you will evaluate your own work. Optionally, you can choose to evaluate the work of even more of your classmates before the evaluation deadline passes. This is very helpful for the success of the course. You are an awesome person if you do this. Remember: as with the submission stage, this evaluation stage is required if you want your own assignment submission to be evaluated.
17 February, 2015 Due by 2359 UTC/GMT (11:59 PM) Evaluation Deadline After this time, you can no longer evaluate the work of your peers or your own. If you have not finished your assigned evaluation tasks by this time, your own assignment may not be evaluated and you may receive a grade penalty.
17 February, 2015 Due by 2359 UTC/GMT (11:59 PM) Final Examination Deadline Complete the Final Examination.

There will be no exceptions or extensions to these deadlines. The Coursera Peer Assessment tool does not allow us to make individual-level exceptions.

Scenario

The following is the hypothetical scenario. You are a volunteer providing short-term support to a Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) in Monrovia, Liberia. You have available the information and capabilities of the below Ebola Map website which provides mapping capabilities, satellite imagery, and human geography data.

Task

Using the Ebola Map and the proposed locations in Monrovia, Liberia, select where to establish the next Ebola Treatment Unit. You may optionally propose an alternate location in Monrovia but this is not required.

Conditions

The coordinates in parentheses are longitude (X) and latitude (Y) expressed in decimal degrees that are suitable for ArcGIS Online.

  1. Given the criteria that the proposed clinic location:
    • is in an area known to have the Ebola disease present.
    • is in an area not served by an existing Ebola facility.
    • is in the proximity to existing medical facilities.
    • serves a significant population.
    • has access to transportation.
    • is in favorable physical environment.
    • is in a location safe for the patients and staff.
  2. Given three (3) pairs of coordinates of possible clinic sites:
    • Site 1: 6°18'10.1"N 10°47'20.8"W (or -10.789111, 6.302805)
    • Site 2: 6°15'32.2"N 10°42'06.3"W (or -10.701749, 6.258846)
    • Site 3: 6°19’59.7"N 10°43'57.6"W (or -10.732666, 6.333250)
  3. Given the below Ebola Map, view and explore GEOINT data of Liberia. Click on the map to access the interactive ArcGIS Online map of the possible clinic locations in Monrovia. Read about the Monrovia, Liberia Data Layer [8]s [9].
ArcGIS Online map showing the locations of the three possible clinic locations. [10]
Figure 5.1: ArcGIS Online map showing the locations of the three possible clinic locations in Monrovia. (Click on the map above to access the interactive ArcGIS online map of the three possible clinic locations in Monrovia.)
Source: ArcGIS Online webmap (http://education.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=684d5dab42824b3582cf224a6d5ba3c0 [10])

Do the following

Step 1: Review the problem, background, criteria, and explore the technology and data. In our ArcGIS Online Ebola map [10], click on the "content" tab in the legend to display the full list of imagery and human geography data themes. Learn about the data. Develop a deep and rich mental picture of the place.

Step 2: Think about and apply a simple data collection strategy. Using ArcGIS Online and the data themes, forage for geospatial evidence to help in your evaluation of the hypothesized best sites in Table 5.1. Note the data you are lacking.

Step 3: Using the art of geospatial reasoning aided with ArcGIS Online's maps:

  • Determine if each piece of evidence is consistent, inconsistent, or not applicable to each hypothesized best location.
  • Review the matrix; reconsider the evidence and each hypothesis. If needed, add a new hypothesis and criterion/evidence; reexamine the information available. This is an iterative process and you may propose an additional site (Site 4). This site should be within the limits of our data in Monrovia, Liberia.
  • Focus on disproving hypotheses rather than proving one. Talley the evidence that is inconsistent and consistent with each hypothesis to see which evidence is the weakest and strongest.
  • Analyze how sensitive the Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH) results are to a few critical items of evidence. Consider what would happen should this key evidence prove to be wrong, misleading, or subject to deception.
  • Ask what evidence is missing but would be expected for a given hypothesized location to be the "best" location.
  • Establish the relative likelihood for each hypothesis being the best location and report all the conclusions.

Step 4: Share and discuss your analysis in the Lesson 5 Discussion Forum [11]. This is an opportunity to vet your analysis before you finalize your submission for peer assessment.

Step 5: Using the Peer Assessment tool [7], Coursera link post your selected location for the Ebola Treatment Unit in the appropriate terms and expressions provided in Tables 5.1 and 5.2. Discuss how you completed this geospatial analysis using ACH. Peer review your submission and four other students' submissions (total of 5 reviews) using the standards of analysis (Table 5.3). Please note the due date!

Table 5.1: Evidence Versus Hypotheses
  Hypothesis: Site 1 is the best location. Hypothesis: Site 2 is the best location. Hypothesis: Site 3 is the best location. Hypothesis (Optional): Site 4 is the best location. Specify the location.
Evidence Related to Criterion 1: The clinic is in an area known to have the Ebola disease present.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 2: The clinic is in an area not served by an existing Ebola facility.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 3: The clinic is in proximity to existing medical facilities.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 4: The clinic is located to serve a significant population.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 5: The clinic has access to transportation.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 6: The clinic is in a favorable physical environment at the location.        
Evidence Related to Criterion 7: The clinic is in a location safe for the patients and staff.        
Other evidence you included in the analysis. Add as many rows as needed.        
State the selected site using the appropriate terms and expressions from Table 5.2, below Referring to the Lesson 4 discussion of Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH), describe how you arrived at your conclusion.
Table 5.2: Confidence Levels
Low Moderate High
  • Uncorroborated information from good or marginal sources
  • Many assumptions
  • Mostly weak logical inferences, minimal methods application
  • Glaring intelligence gaps exist

Terms/Expressions:
  • Possible
  • Could, may, might
  • Cannot judge, unclear
  • Partially corroborated information from good sources
  • Several assumptions
  • Mix of strong and weak inferences and methods
  • Minimal intelligence gaps


Terms/Expressions:
  • Likely, unlikely
  • Probable, improbable
  • Anticipate, appear
  • Well corroborated information from proven sources
  • Minimal assumptions
  • Strong logical inferences and methods
  • No or minor intelligence gaps exist

Terms/Expressions:
  • will, will not
  • Almost certainly, remote
  • Highly likely, highly unlikely
  • Expect, assert, affirm
Table 5.3: Analytic Standards
Item Analytic Standard
A Properly describes quality and reliability of underlying sources.
B Properly caveats and expresses uncertainties or confidence in analytic judgments.
C Properly distinguishes between underlying intelligence and analysts' assumptions and judgments.
D Incorporates alternative analysis where appropriate.
E Demonstrates relevance to the domain.
F Uses logical argumentation.
G If appropriate, exhibits consistency of analysis over time, or highlights changes and explains rationale.
H Makes accurate judgments and assessments.

Credits

This lab was developed by Todd Bacastow, Gary Parkhurst [12] (DigitalGlobe), and Joseph Kerski [13] (Esri). Esri and DigitalGlobe generously provided help creating this instance using ArcGIS Online, current satellite imagery, and human geography data as in the NGA Ebola Map.

L5.05: Discussion

Where would you open the next Ebola Treatment Unit?

For our final week's discussion, I want to focus on your geospatial analysis using the technique of Analysis of Competing Hypothesis (ACH). Separate from submitting your analysis for the peer assessment activity, this is your chance to share your work with the class and receive feedback. Here's what to do:

  • Post a description of how you developed geospatial evidence to support the ACH.
  • Comment on how you applied the ACH process.
  • Find and comment on an analysis that you think does a great job. Describe what you liked, as well as what you did not like.

Go to the dedicated Lesson 5 Discussion Forum [14] to talk about these issues.

Discussion Grading

Participation in discussions is worth 10% of your overall grade in the class. To earn the full 10%, you need to make a total of 10 original posts or comments by the end of the class. If I were you, I'd shoot for posting twice each week. Read the Grading Policy [15] page for more details.

Links here go to Coursera.

L5.06: Final Exam

The final exam for this class is due the last day of the course (check the syllabus and schedule [16] for the date!) at 11:59 PM (2359) UTC.

  • The exam is timed for 90 minutes, and you have one attempt at completing the exam.em> IF YOU OPEN THE EXAM, YOU CANNOT STOP THE TIMER.
  • If you lose your connection briefly during that time, you should be able to restart where you left off (but the timer keeps ticking, so log on as quickly as you can).
  • Make sure you save your answers often along the way to avoid losing progress if you're on an unreliable connection.

Use the following link to access the Quizzes and Exam page [17] where you will see the link to the Final Exam.

Final Exam FAQ

Question: I lost my Internet connection and the time expired, can you reset the exam for me?
Answer: Sorry, there is no way for me to do this on an individual basis in Coursera. In addition, there is no way I can manage the process of deciding who gets another try with thousands of students.

Question: What kinds of questions can I expect on the exam?
Answer: This exam features 30 questions, and is cumulative for the course. All of the questions were drawn from the course Lessons.

Question: Why are you setting a time limit and only letting us take it once?
Answer: This is a chance for me to understand how well you are retaining knowledge from the past weeks of the course. Leaving it wide open and offering multiple tries would not help me understand whether or not you've actually learned something that will carry on beyond this course.

Question: Why is the exam not longer (or shorter)?
Answer: I've provided more than two minutes for each question. That should be plenty of time for students who have completed the Lesson 1-4 quizzes and read the lesson content.

L5.07: References

Health Map - Ebola Outbreak [18]

World Health Organization (WHO) [19]

Monrovia, Liberia Human Geography Data Summary

Provided by DigitalGlobe, Inc. in cooperation with Esri and NGA.

DigitalGlobe Landscape +Human [20] datasets are analyst-ready map layers that serve as a foundation for conducting geospatial analysis. The data conforms to the World-Wide Human Geography Data Working Group (WWHGD WG) [21] efforts to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of cultures, activities, and attitudes. Such datasets are especially useful in supporting crisis situations, such as the Ebola virus outbreak, in parts of the world that tend to lack publicly available map data for use with GIS tools such as ArcGIS Online.

The dataset used for this exercise to evaluate possible locations for Ebola treatment clinics in Monrovia, Liberia contains the following layers:

  1. Administrative Layers
    • Monrovia (polygon) – Administrative border of the city of Monrovia (an Administrative Level 2 polygon)
    • Monrovia_Points (points) – Three points of interest within the city of Monrovia denoting the center of each survey area
  2. Communication Layers
    • Internet Cafes (points) – Internet cafes are locations where customers can access the internet via pay-per-use transactions, often times anonymously.
  3. Crime and Public Security
    • Prisons (points) –Consist of traditional prisons, jails, penitentiaries or other places where criminals and persons are held for extended periods of time.
    • Public Security Points of Interest (points) – Locations of police and fire stations or where other public security personnel and equipment are based.
  4. Critical Infrastructure
    • Airfields (points) – Locations where commercial, passenger, and military aircraft arrive and depart and/or are housed.
    • Bridges and Tunnels (points) – Bridges and tunnels are infrastructure which allows road, rail, or pedestrian traffic to traverse waterways, mountains, or other forms of infrastructure.
    • Marine Infrastructure (points) – Consists of locations where open waterways or hydrologic features meet terrain. May include physical infrastructure like lighthouses and docks, or natural features like beaches.
    • Ports (points) – Dedicated locations where ships and boats can load or unload cargo or passengers, generally with supporting infrastructure.
    • Public Transportation Points of Interest (points) – Locations where passengers can embark or disembark from modes of public transportation like trams, buses, and taxis.
    • Railway Points (points) – Locations where rail lines routinely stop to load or unload cargo or passengers or receive service.
    • Railways (polylines) – Lines denoting known paths of individual rail lines providing freight or passenger service. May also include subways and elevated trains.
    • Roads (polylines) – Lines denoting infrastructure which supports automobile, pedestrian, and equipment traffic, including paved and unpaved roads as well as elements like steps, paths, and living streets.
  5. Culture and Ethnicity
    • Cultural Points of Interest (points) – Locations where people commonly gather to witness events, observe cultural traditions or bury those who have died.
  6. Economy
    • Agricultural Points of Interest (points) – Locations where food, livestock, or aquaculture is raised or propagated.
    • Commercial Points of Interest (points) – Locations where businesses are located, products are manufactured, or services are rendered for a fee.
    • Lodging Points of Interest (points) – Locations where people can stay, either permanently or temporarily, either for a fee or at no cost. May include hotels, apartments, hostels, or other forms of shelter.
    • Recreation Points of Interest (points) – Locations where people may gather for leisure.
    • Tourist Locations (points) – Similar to recreation points of interest, these are locations where people may gather for leisure, but are more generally known to a broader audience or require travel across boundaries. May have significant historical or international importance.
  7. Education
    • Educational Institutions (points) – Locations where education is offered either by the government or private institutions. May include everything from primary and secondary schools to universities.
    • Libraries (points) – Locations where books and other media are stored for subsequent use, generally for free to the public.
  8. Government/Municipal
    • Embassies (points) – Locations where foreign government officials (typically an ambassador) and staff provide a permanent liaison between two countries and handling diplomatic issues for their citizens inside the given country. May also include consulates which specialize more in minor diplomatic issues like the issuance of visas.
    • Government Points of Interest (points) – Locations of government-specific buildings and organizations within a country, generally providing services to its citizens.
    • Military Installations (points) – Locations of known military systems, equipment, or weapons.
  9. Hydrology
    • Rivers and Streams (polylines) – Lines which represent perennial and non-perennial hydrologic features which traverse the landscape; both natural and manmade.
    • Inland Bodies of Water (polygons) – Areas where water resides both perennially and non-perennially on the landscape for extended periods of time. May include lakes, ponds, reservoirs, very wide sections of rivers and wetlands/marshes.
  10. Imagery
    • Imagery layers (rasters) – Includes three separate imagery rasters collected in late 2014 which depict the three areas of interest in Monrovia.
  11. Medical/Health
    • Medical Facilities (points) – Locations where health services are rendered to the public, both for a fee and at no cost.
  12. Religion
    • Religious Institutions (points) – Locations where people observe religious ceremonies on a routine basis.

Source URL: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geointmooc/node/1983

Links
[1] http://video.nationalgeographic.com/video/news/141016-inside-ebola-clinic-vin
[2] http://www.who.int/features/2014/liberia-ebola-clinic/en/
[3] http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/hcp/preparing-ebola-treatment-centers.html
[4] http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/
[5] http://techsupportuk.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/?appid=deb9d5151d954de5b3933294c911b67f
[6] http://www.mcmanis-monsalve.com/files/publications/intelligence-methodology-1-07-chido.pdf
[7] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/human_grading
[8] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/geointmooc/node/2039
[9] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/wiki/Human_Geography_Data
[10] http://education.maps.arcgis.com/home/webmap/viewer.html?webmap=684d5dab42824b3582cf224a6d5ba3c0
[11] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/forum/list?forum_id=3
[12] https://www.linkedin.com/pub/gary-parkhurst/41/504/84a
[13] http://www.josephkerski.com/
[14] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/forum
[15] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/wiki/grading
[16] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/wiki/syllabus
[17] https://class.coursera.org/geoint-001/quiz
[18] http://healthmap.org/ebola/
[19] http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/en/
[20] https://www.digitalglobe.com/products/human-landscape
[21] http://wwhgd.org/sites/default/files/OnePager.docx