EGEE 401
Energy in a Changing World

Unit Intro & Stabilization Wedges

PrintPrint

Unit 5 Introduction

In this last Unit (Environmental Solutions), we are going to consider approaches to addressing the challenges presented by the quandary of how to meet our energy "needs" while protecting our planet and the life it supports.

The Dean of our College (Earth and Mineral Sciences), Bill Easterling describes our College as a "world leader in generating the fundamental knowledge needed to develop novel solutions to challenges" such as "achieving energy security" and "sustaining a viable planetary life support system." (He identifies several others too. For full text see Meet the Dean)

NOTE: Dean Easterling is leaving Penn State and the College of Earth Mineral and Sciences has recently selected his replacement, Dr. Lee Kump, a paleoclimatologist specializing in atmosphere and ocean evolution, environmental biogeochemistry, and biogeochemical cycles. He co-authored the 2016 book, Dire Predictions: Understanding Climate Change, explaining the findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. For full story, see Penn State faculty member named College of Earth and Mineral Sciences Dean.

We've learned a lot about climate change challenges in this course. As we embark on this final unit, let me remind you of a few points underscoring the urgency and scale of the solutions needed:

  • 2016 was the warmest year on record. It is the third year in a row to set a new record for global average surface temperatures.
  • "The planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 2.0 degrees Fahrenheit (1.1 degree Celsius) since the late-19th century, a change largely driven by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere."

NASA, NOAA Data Show 2016 Warmest Year on Record Globally

  • If we stay on the current path, driven by population growth and economic activities, global average temperatures could rise 6 to nearly 9 degrees Fahrenheit in the next 85 years.
  • To stay below a 3.6 F change (2C, and widely accepted "goal"), greenhouse gas emissions around the world need to fall by 40-70% in the next 35 years, and to zero within 85 years.
  • Between 1970 and 2010, 78% of the increase in greenhouse emissions has come from fossil fuel combustion and industrial processes.

IPCC Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers

Climate change is no longer a concern for "the grandchildren." Climate change is happening now, with serious thresholds predicted within our lifetimes.

What to do? Let's explore some ideas.

Stabilization Wedges

Stabilization Wedges is an innovative framework for using a portfolio of available technologies to curb and manage CO2 emissions.

Reading Assignment

Visit the Carbon Mitigation Initiative

  • Under "Articles and Videos," read the Scientific American article "A Plan to Keep Carbon in Check"
  • Under "Introduction," read "Stabilization Wedges Introduction"

Okay, so what is a "wedge?" A wedge is a strategy. It is a way to reduce emissions by a total of 25 Gigatons over the next 50 years using existing technology that has already been commercialized.

diagram of a wedge.  See text version link in the caption.
Figure 10.1: What is a Wedge? (Text Version)

Important Updates

In a very good follow up article, Wedges Reaffirmed, (Climate Central, September 2011), Socolow writes,

"The paper [referring to original work] is probably best known for having introduced the "stabilization wedges," a quantitative way to measure the level of effort associated with a mitigation strategy: a wedge of vehicle fuel efficiency, a wedge of wind power, and a wedge of avoided deforestation have the same effect on carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Filling the stabilization triangle required seven wedges. The wedge concept fosters parallel discussion of alternatives and encourages the design of a portfolio of responses. Each wedge is an immense activity. In talks about this work, I like to say that we decomposed a heroic challenge into a limited set of monumental tasks."

He goes on to say,

"Today, nine wedges are required to fill the stabilization triangle, instead of seven."

2013 Update:

The January 2013 issue of Science Magazine Vol. 339 no. 6116 pp. 128-129) includes an article, "Climate Study Highlights Wedge Issue," which discusses a new report offering "a provocative update to the wedges saga" citing a paper published in Environmental Research Letters that calls for a more "audacious plan" where at least a whopping 19 wedges—and perhaps as many as 31—will be needed to stabilize and then phase out carbon pollution. These authors contend that "beyond the 2004 plan's emphasis on expanding the use of current technologies, 'fundamental and disruptive transformation of the global energy system' is needed to avoid devastating climate change."

The "Wedges" framework remains a relevant and thought-provoking method for looking at carbon mitigation strategies.