Published on EGEE 401: Energy in a Changing World (https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401)

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Unit 2, Lesson 3

Introduction

Unit 2: Environmental Challenges – Lesson 3: Climate Change, Current and Projected Impacts

About Unit 2 and Lesson 3

In the previous unit, we learned about energy in its natural forms and how energy changes from one form to another. We defined energy efficiency as the useful energy output divided by the total energy input. It's easy to think only in terms of the useful output rather than the other unintended outputs. We routinely measure the mileage of our cars, the capacity of our power plants, the efficiency of our appliances. We have been less attuned to measures related to the non-useful (unintended) outputs of these energy transformations, (e.g., greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, radioactive waste, solid waste). In this unit, we'll look more closely at the outputs related to climate change.

CO2 is one of many gases that are the unintended byproducts of energy transformations routinely conducted by humans on a large scale for purposes of the energy industry, as well as transportation, agriculture, semiconductor manufacturing, industrial process, fuel production and others.

The main source of greenhouse gas emissions from human activities in the United States is the combustion of fossil fuels.

For more than 100 years, three fossil fuel sources—petroleum, natural gas, and coal—have made up at least 80% of total U.S. energy consumption. (Source: Today In Energy [1], July 2015)  In 2014, thirty percent (30%) of our greenhouse emissions came from electricity generation and 26% from transportation. (Source: US Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report [2], April 2016)

Collectively, CO2 and related gasses are called greenhouse gases (GHG) because of their role in climate change through a process called the Greenhouse Effect. To appreciate the connection between our use of energy and the environment, it helps first to understand what climate change is and the science behind it. This is the goal of Unit 2.

In Unit 2, we will look at Environmental Challenges and gain an understanding of what they are, why they matter, and the science behind them. Then, when we study the energy industry, we can relate the underlying energy transformation processes and byproducts to their impact on the environment.

Lesson 3 covers the current and projected impacts of climate change.

Embedded Reading Assignments

Throughout Lesson 3 (and many other lessons in this course), you will be guided to websites where specific sections or pages are assigned for reading. Rather than pulling these pages as excerpts and posting them here on the course website, you’re being directed to the source document where you can see the reading assignment in full context. Maybe you’ll see other sections that pique your interest or are useful reference for other projects at work or school. And if you have questions about terms or data presented in the assigned reading, take a few minutes to poke around the rest of the document and see if you can find answers. It’s a fascinating world out there! If you have navigation questions, let me know, and I’ll clarify.

What will we learn in Lesson 3?

With the successful completion of this lesson, you will be able to:

  • explain current climate change impacts locally and globally;
  • describe how climate modeling is used to make projections;
  • explain projected climate change impacts locally and globally;
  • relate the impacts of climate change to your life and locale.

What is due for Lesson 3?

The table below provides an overview of the requirements for Lesson 3. For details regarding the assignment, refer to the page(s) noted in the table.

Please refer to the Calendar in ANGEL for specific time frames and due dates.

Lesson 3 Assignments
REQUIREMENT LOCATION SUBMITTED FOR GRADING?
Reading: About IPCC and Fifth Assessment Report (designated sections) Page 2 No
Viewing (optional): IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report Synthesis Report video Page 2 No
Reading: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (designated sections) Page 3 No
Reading: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (designated sections) Page 4 No
Reading: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (designated sections) Page 5 No
Reading: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (designated sections) Page 6 No
View Interactive Maps: U.S. Geological Survey Page 6 No
Lesson 3 Activity: Complete Lesson 3 Activity. (It's in CANVAS, in the Unit 2 Module.) Page 7 Yes
Unit 2 Discussion Forum: "Biggest Loser!" Cutting your green house gas emissions (It's in CANVAS, in the Unit 2 Module.) Page 8 Yes

Questions about EGEE 401?

If you have any questions, please post them to our Questions about EGEE 401? Discussion (not e-mail), in CANVAS. Use this Discussion  for general questions about course content and administration. I will check it daily to respond. While you are there, feel free to post your own responses if you, too, are able to help out a classmate or have a related question.

 

Climate Change Background

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) has issued five major "assessment reports" on the state of the climate. In 2007, the IPCC, along with Al Gore, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize [3] "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change."

The IPCC is currently in its Sixth Assessment cycle.

To understand energy and energy's relationship to climate in a ever changing world, it is helpful and very interesting to hold an essential understanding of climate science and climate science research. What do we know about climate change, how do we know it, why can we trust it, what can we expect in the future, how will our actions (and energy choices) today affect the future climate? The IPCC is the world's best effort to answer these very big questions.

In this lesson, we are going to learn about the IPCC and how it does this important work and try to answer some of the big questions just listed!

Reading Assignment

Visit the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC). [4]

Read the "Organization" main page, and review closely the IPCC sections Structure, History and Election Results.

The IPCC began release of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), with release of Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Chapter 1 of this report includes a table summarizing major conclusions from the four earlier reports. This information provides perspective and context for the new report.

Reading Assignment

Review closely:

Table 1.1 Historical Overview of major conclusions of previous IPCC assessment reports [5] (from AR5 WGI Chapter 1 Introduction.)

 

Observed Climate Change

The IPCC reports are lengthy, detailed, and highly structured reports. In this lesson, we are going to work primarily with the section AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis called Summary for Policy Makers. To be sure you are prepared to understand the material presented here, I have shopped around the rest of the IPCC document (and other sources too), to provide you with background reading on key concepts. The first of these key concepts, for understanding climate science and the IPCC reports, are uncertainty and radiative forcing.

Reading Assignment

AR5 Technical Summary Box TS.1 Treatment of Uncertainty [6]

Radiative Forcing explained...

The concept of radiative forcing is fairly straightforward. Energy is constantly flowing into the atmosphere in the form of sunlight that always shines on half of the Earth’s surface. Some of this sunlight (about 30 percent) is reflected back to space and the rest is absorbed by the planet. And like any warm object sitting in cold surroundings — and space is a very cold place — some energy is always radiating back out into space as invisible infrared light. Subtract the energy flowing out from the energy flowing in, and if the number is anything other than zero, there has to be some warming (or cooling, if the number is negative) going on.

It’s as if you have a kettle full of water, which is at room temperature. That means everything is at equilibrium, and nothing will change except as small random variations. But light a fire under that kettle, and suddenly there will be more energy flowing into that water than radiating out, and the water is going to start getting hotter.

In short, radiative forcing is a direct measure of the amount that the Earth’s energy budget is out of balance.

For the Earth’s climate system, it turns out that the level where this imbalance can most meaningfully be measured is the boundary between the troposphere (the lowest level of the atmosphere) and the stratosphere (the very thin upper layer). For all practical purposes, where weather and climate are concerned, this boundary marks the top of the atmosphere.

While the concept is simple, the analysis required to figure out the actual value of this number for the Earth right now is much more complicated and difficult. Many different factors have an effect on this balancing act, and each has its own level of uncertainty and its own difficulties in being precisely measured. And the individual contributions to radiative forcing cannot simply be added together to get the total, because some of the factors overlap — for example, some different greenhouse gases absorb and emit at the same infrared wavelengths of radiation, so their combined warming effect is less than the sum of their individual effects.

(Source: MIT News, Explained: Radiative Forcing [7], David Chandler, 2010)

Okay, you now have the background needed to follow the information presented in the IPCC's Summary for Policy Makers. For terms that may be new to you, please refer to the IPCC's Glossary and Acronyms (Annex III and IV of the new report). As you read the sections below, focus your attention on the opening paragraphs of each section, especially the statements in the shaded boxes.

Reading Assignment

Visit the IPCC. [8]

Under "Publications and Data," locate the Fifth Assessment Report, select Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis

Review the list of chapters and notice the Annexes, including Annex III: Glossary and Annex IV: Acronyms. You may find these to be useful references!

Download the chapter Summary for Policymakers. Read the following sections (and all subsections):

A. Introduction

B. Observed Changes in the Climate System

C. Drivers of Climate Change

(You may wish to save this document. It will be used throughout this lesson.)

 

Climate Modeling

diagram of El Nino developeing across the tropical Pacific. See link in caption for details.
Figure 3.1: When a strong El Niño develops across the tropical Pacific, it can influence weather and climate as far away as the southern polar region. For full description see, iSGTW [9].
Credit: International Science Grid This Week [9]

Simulation models

Simulation models are computer programs that represent actual systems. We use them to predict how the system would behave under different conditions. When I worked as an industrial engineer, we often used simulation models to help design and plan manufacturing processes. For example, suppose we had an assembly line of 20 workstations that made washing machine parts. We would "describe" the assembly line using data in a computer simulation program. Then we would enter information about each workstation—how long it took, number of defects (say, 1 out of 10 parts failed), how often the workstation needed to be shut down for repair or maintenance, etc. Then, we would run the model to see what would happen if we made changes. What if we added a workstation? or removed one? Would our output change? What if we retooled or retrained and quality improved so that we only had 1 in 50 defects? What if the number of orders we got suddenly doubled, how far behind would we get? We would use the output of these models to help us make business and management decisions. Each set of what if conditions is called a scenario.

"Mathematical models are used not only in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines (such as physics, biology, earth science, meteorology, and engineering) but also in the social sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology and political science); physicists, engineers, computer scientists, and economists use mathematical models most extensively." (Wikipedia: Mathematical Model [10]) (I don't usually use Wikipedia as a source, but in this case the information is general, well stated, and widely accepted.)

We model many, many things—business processes, financial systems, whole economies, Internet traffic, network traffic, air traffic, automobile traffic, human behavior, cellular behavior...and so on! The Weather Channel will often show multiple possible paths for an incoming storm and the reporter will refer to different "models." These are weather models. Each model is based on a set of equations and data representing the weather system. Given a set of conditions (a scenario), the model predicts what the weather will do.

Weather and Climate

In the previous section, I used weather models as an example of using models to simulate different "what-if" scenarios. In the following sections we are going to talk about using models to study climate change. Before going there, let's pause and consider the important differences between "weather" and "climate." NASA has devoted an entire page to "What's the Difference between Weather and Climate?" [11] If you have time, check it out. Here are key excerpts:

  • The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, and climate is how the atmosphere "behaves" over relatively long periods of time.
  • In addition to long-term climate change, there are shorter term climate variations. This so-called climate variability can be represented by periodic or intermittent changes related to El Niño, La Niña, volcanic eruptions, or other changes in the Earth system.
  • Weather is basically the way the atmosphere is behaving, mainly with respect to its effects upon life and human activities. The difference between weather and climate is that weather consists of the short-term (minutes to months) changes in the atmosphere. Most people think of weather in terms of temperature, humidity, precipitation, cloudiness, brightness, visibility, wind, and atmospheric pressure, as in high and low pressure.
  • In most places, weather can change from minute-to-minute, hour-to-hour, day-to-day, and season-to-season. Climate, however, is the average of weather over time and space. An easy way to remember the difference is that climate is what you expect, like a very hot summer, and weather is what you get, like a hot day with pop-up thunderstorms.

IPCC Climate Models

The IPCC uses climate simulation models to predict future climate change and its impact. The IPCC Working Group I describes a climate model as,

Climate Model...

A numerical representation of the climate system based on the physical, chemical and biological properties of its components, their interactions and feedback processes, and accounting for some of its known properties. The climate system can be represented by models of varying complexity, that is, for any one component or combination of components a spectrum or hierarchy of models can be identified, differing in such aspects as the number of spatial dimensions, the extent to which physical, chemical or biological processes are explicitly represented or the level at which empirical parameterizations are involved. Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) provide a representation of the climate system that is near or at the most comprehensive end of the spectrum currently available. There is an evolution towards more complex models with interactive chemistry and biology. Climate models are applied as a research tool to study and simulate the climate, and for operational purposes, including monthly, seasonal, and interannual climate predictions. (from Annex III: Glossary)

Reading Assignment

FAQ 9.1 Are Climate Models Getting Better, and How Would We Know? [12] (AR5 WGI Chapter 9 Evaluation of Climate Models)

 

Climate Change Scenarios

The IPCC climate models are highly sophisticated mathematical representations of the climate. But, for the models to predict future behavior, they must be given a set of assumed future conditions (the "what if" scenario).

In the previous report, AR4, scenarios were based on assumptions about future demographics, economics, and technology. These scenarios were described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) and were called the SRES scenarios. They were called "storylines." For example, the "A1 storyline" assumed a world of very rapid economic growth, a global population that peaks in mid-century, and rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies.

In the new report (AR5), the IPCC uses a different report to define four possible views of the future. These are called Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. They are defined not by assumptions based on demographics, economics and technology, but instead specify actual concentrations of greenhouse gasses and emission levels. The IPCC describes, the new scenarios "are referred to as pathways in order to emphasize that they are not definitive scenarios, but rather internally consistent sets of time-dependent forcing projections that could potentially be realized with more than one underlying socioeconomic scenario. The primary products of the RCPs are concentrations but they also provide gas emissions." (AR5, WGI, Chapter 12, Long-term Climate Change" Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, page 1045)

Reading Assignment

Box 1.1 Description of Future Scenarios [13] (AR5 WGI Chapter 1 Introduction)

(At first glance, this information may appear very complicated. Read slowly, be sure of acronyms, and I believe you will find it very understandable...and interesting!)

We simply do not know what climates of the future will look like. We count on climate models for this information. If we continue doing what we are doing, what will happen? If we manage ourselves differently, what will the future climate look like? Climate models are essential to our understanding and management of climate change.

Reading Assignment

From AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers (used earlier in this lesson). Read the following section (and all subsections):

D. Understanding the Climate System and its Recent Changes

 

Projected Climate Change

Using the climate models and scenarios described in the previous section, the IPCC has made predictions about future climate change around the planet. These projections are cataloged and organized by region.

Reading Assignment

From AR5 Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Summary for Policymakers (used earlier in this lesson). Read the following sections (and all subsections):

E. Future Global and Regional Climate Change

Interactive Assignment

Visit the USGS [14] (U.S. Geological Survey)

Under "ABOUT", "ABOUT US",  read Who We Are.

Under "ABOUT", "ORGANIZATION", scan Mission Areas.

Under "PRODUCTS", "DATA AND TOOLS", "Data and Tools Topics", "Climate and Land Use Change," scroll to and select (May 2, 2016) National Climate Change Viewer (NCCV)

  • Download the "Tutorial (PDF)" and lightly scan, especially the Introduction and Overview of the USGS National Climate Viewer.
  • Select "Viewer" to open and accept the Terms of Use. Browse around and become familiar with the parameters and overall functionality. (You'll use this as part of your assignment.)

 

Lesson 3 Activity

Complete the Lesson 3 Activity. (It's in CANVAS, under Modules, Unit 2.)

Unless noted otherwise, correct answers come directly from the content of this lesson and assigned readings.

The Activity consists of a variety questions of different types, which may include true/false, multiple choice, multiple select, fill in the blank, ordering, and short answer. The point value varies and is indicated for each. Some questions are graded automatically, and some are manually graded.

The quiz is not timed, but does close at 11:59 pm Eastern Standard Time on the due date as shown in CANVAS.

Questions that are "manually graded" will be scored based on the correctness and quality of your answers. Thinking is good! Try to make your answers as orderly and clear as possible. Short is good, as long as you fully answer the question. Help me understand what you are thinking, and include data where relevant.

Numbers must ALWAYS be accompanied by units of measure (not "300" but "300 kW").

Proofread and spell check your work.

Discussion

Unit 2 Discussion Forum: "Biggest Loser!"

Use the EPA's Personal Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator [15] to estimate your individual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. (Use data from your Energy Lab Site). Be sure to work through all sections carefully (home energy, transportation, waste).

There are many other online emissions calculators and tools. Explore freely, and report back on favorites you find.

I like this one from the Nature Conservancy [16] because it also includes Food & Diet. Like many of you perhaps, I am a vegetarian and a member of a local Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) organic co-op. The dietary piece of the emissions scenario is too often overlooked when we considered behaviors and choices that contribute to our individual emissions. (Here's a quick overview, with links to studies, from Time, How a Vegetarian Diet Could Help Save the Planet [17])

Activity

Make a list of five things you could do (or not do) that would reduce your annual CO2 emissions. There are no rules! Get your ideas from anywhere. (There are loads of interesting good sources on the Web.) The more creative, the better. Just try to come up with the easiest, cheapest ideas that have the biggest impact and that you are most likely to do.

For each one, roughly estimate the annual greenhouse gas reductions, cost...and likelihood that you'll do it! Estimate the total annual GHG reductions if you did all five things. To help estimate your emission reductions, use the EPA's Greenhouse Gas Equivalency Calculator [18]

In your posting, include:

1) your estimated Individual GHG Emissions

2) five ideas for reducing your emissions. For each, try to estimate cost, annual GHG emission reduction (in "tons of CO2 equivalent") and likelihood you'll do it. (Definitely, Probably, Probably Not, No Way). Include at least one idea that is not in the EPA Household Carbon Footprint Calculator.

Respond. Read the postings of others and respond to at least one.

Please define and explain any acronyms or abbreviations you use (GHG = greenhouse gas) and wherever possible include links to your references. Any questions, just let me know!

Post your work in the Discussion, "Biggest Loser!" You'll find it in CANVAS, in the Unit 2 Module. Please follow full instructions there.

Read the postings of others and respond to at least one. Follow up on any postings made to your comment.

Please see CANVAS calendar for due date of your FIRST posting and date when discussion ends (graded participation ends, all replies must be in).

Grading criteria

You will be graded on the quality of your participation. Be interesting and interested! Please see Syllabus for full Discussion grading criteria.

Summary and Final Tasks

Summary

In this lesson, you learned about how our climate is changing, how we use climate models to predict future changes and what the projected climate changes and impacts are.

Reminder—Complete all of the lesson tasks!

You have finished Lesson 3. Double-check the list of requirements on the Lesson 3 Overview page to make sure you have completed all of the activities listed there before beginning the next lesson.


Source URL: https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401/content/p3.html

Links
[1] https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=21912
[2] https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/us-greenhouse-gas-inventory-report-1990-2014
[3] http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/2007/
[4] http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
[5] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee401/files/WG1AR5_Chapter01_FINAL%20TABLE%20summarizing%20all%20years.pdf
[6] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee401/files/WG1%20Box%20TS%201%20Treatment%20of%20Uncertainty.pdf
[7] http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/2010/explained-radforce-0309.html
[8] http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm#.UvDs8LQkDSg
[9] http://www.isgtw.org/feature/forecasting-el-nino-half-century-ahead
[10] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mathematical_model
[11] http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/noaa-n/climate/climate_weather.html
[12] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee401/files/AR5%20WG1%20FAQ%209%201%20Are%20climate%20models%20getting%20better%20and%20who%20would%20we%20know.pdf
[13] https://www.e-education.psu.edu/egee401/sites/www.e-education.psu.edu.egee401/files/AR5_Scenarios.pdf
[14] http://www.usgs.gov/
[15] http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/emissions/ind_calculator.html
[16] http://www.nature.org/greenliving/carboncalculator/index.htm
[17] http://time.com/4266874/vegetarian-diet-climate-change/
[18] http://www.epa.gov/cleanenergy/energy-resources/calculator.html