
Instructions
Answer each question in 2-3 complete sentences. Consider each question carefully and be sure to provide a complete answer.
Questions

Figure 4. Orange bars show the histogram of the annual peak flows shown in Figure 3 for the Lehigh River. Grey dashed line is a theoretical distribution (a probability density function, or PDF) approximating the complete distribution represented by the histogram of historical data. The PDF can be used to make predictions of flood frequency.
Source: Data from US Geological Survey
- Determine which of the following should be considered forecasts versus predictions:
- The peak flow of the Mississippi River in St. Louis, MO next year
- Weather in Charleston, SC tomorrow
- Mean global temperature in 2100
- Why do you think flood magnitude histograms (and associated probability density functions) like Figure 4 above are typically right skewed (i.e., have a long tail to the right side of the plot, as opposed to a bell curve which has the mean, median and mode in the middle and symmetrical tails on each side)? What does this say about how these systems function?
Worksheet
Download the worksheet used when submitting your assessment.
Grading and Rubric
Each answer will earn a maximum of 5 points, as described in the rubric below.
Work Shown | Possible Points |
---|---|
Answer reflects careful consideration of the questions | 2 |
Answer is appropriate in length | 1 |
Answer is legible | 1 |
Answer given in complete sentences; correct spelling and grammar | 1 |
Submitting your Answers
Bring your written answers to class. If they are hand-written, be sure your writing is legible. If your handwriting is not clear, please type and print your answers.